NFL pick of the week: Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks

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Los Angeles Chargers (0-3) travel to face Seattle Seahawks (2-1) this week, and it is the one play from our full NFL and NCAAF slate that anyone can see without an account: the free preview.

Kickoff is at Lumen Field, Seattle, broadcast on CBS.

Our model lines this one at 39.19 against a market price of +105 on Under 42.5.

The total sits 3.31 points above our projection of 39.19, and the matchup gives the Chargers a difficult path to lift the score. Los Angeles averages 18.2 points over its last five and has a -7.19 offensive rating. Seattle allows 228.7 yards per game and 4.29 net yards per pass attempt. The market has already moved three points toward the under, from 45.5 to 42.5, but our projection still leaves room below the current number. Seattle's recent games have averaged 42.6 combined points, based on 24.6 scored and 18 allowed. Los Angeles has averaged 40.2, with 18.2 scored and 22 allowed. The unit matchup also points to pressure on the Chargers' scoring: their passing grade is 61.3 against Seattle coverage at 83.0, while their run blocking grade of 43.2 faces Seattle's 74.4 run defence. Weather is mild at 70 degrees with 7 mph wind, so conditions do not add a strong under case. The 62.5% hit probability supports a 1.75% bankroll stake, a measured confidence level rather than a high-conviction position. The main way this loses is Seattle's stronger offence turning its 367.7 yards per game into an unusually high-scoring performance.

The numbers we leaned on: Model total 39.19, market 42.5, Chargers average 18.2 points over five, Seattle coverage grade 83.0 versus 61.3.

We have this side at 62.5% to cover, against a market that implies less, which is the whole source of the edge.

The pick is sized at 1.75% of bankroll, which is where our model's confidence in this number lands. Nothing we publish is ever sized above 3%.

Every pick we publish carries the same write up, the same stake and the same graded record in the open, win or lose. This is one play out of what usually runs three to six NFL plays and four to seven NCAAF plays a week, and it is the only one anyone can read without an account.

See the rest of the week's slate, the full write ups and the graded record at spreadhound.com/pricing.