Blog
One free pick a week, written up in full: the matchup, the numbers behind it and why the model likes it. No account needed to read.
NCAAFNov 9, 2026Total of the Month: Arkansas at Auburn Under 53.5 Wins
A 48.37-point model total, subdued recent scoring and windy conditions supported the Under. Arkansas and Auburn finished with 49 points, clearing the play by 4.5.
NCAAFNov 3, 2026Virginia Tech at SMU: Why the Hokies Have Value at Six
SMU has the stronger recent results, but the matchup grades make the Mustangs only a 4.2-point home favorite. That gap gives Virginia Tech room against the market number.
NCAAFOct 27, 2026Purdue at Penn State: Why the Boilermakers' Price Is Worth a Closer Look
Penn State is priced as a stronger favourite than the numbers suggest. Purdue's third-down offence and a model win probability of 37% make the visitors' moneyline a live underdog case, despite clear concerns on defence.
NCAAFOct 20, 2026NCAAF pick of the week: Duke Blue Devils at Virginia Cavaliers
Duke Blue Devils at Virginia Cavaliers: our free pick of the week, with the model line, the market number and the reasoning behind it.
NFLOct 15, 2026Chargers at Chiefs: Kansas City's rest and ground-game edge support the spread
Kansas City's model line is 10.7 points, 2.7 beyond the market spread. The Chiefs also have a substantial rest advantage and a stronger statistical profile, though their listed practice concerns are worth watching.
NFLOct 13, 2026NFL pick of the week: Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams
Buffalo Bills at Los Angeles Rams: our free pick of the week, with the model line, the market number and the reasoning behind it.
NCAAFOct 6, 2026San Diego State at Oregon State: Can the Aztecs slow the scoring pace?
Oregon State's recent scoring form is the main threat to the under, but the model sees enough separation from the market total to support a measured position.
NFLSep 30, 2026NFL pick of the week: Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks
Los Angeles Chargers at Seattle Seahawks: our free pick of the week, with the model line, the market number and the reasoning behind it.
NFLSep 24, 2026Cardinals vs 49ers: An In-Depth Preview for Sunday Night Showdown
The San Francisco 49ers are poised to exploit the Arizona Cardinals' struggles, making the over a compelling choice in this matchup.
NCAAFSep 24, 2026Toledo Rockets vs San Diego State Aztecs: A Clash of Offences
Toledo's offensive firepower sets the stage for a high-scoring matchup against San Diego State, making the over on 51.5 an intriguing play.
NCAAFSep 22, 2026Scoring Potential Favouring Georgia Against Oklahoma
The matchup between Oklahoma and Georgia highlights a significant scoring advantage for the Bulldogs.
- NFLSep 22, 2026
Analyzing the Giants vs Rams Matchup: A Case for the Under
The total in the Giants vs Rams game appears set too high, given both teams' offensive struggles and defensive strengths.