Total of the Month: Arkansas at Auburn Under 53.5 Wins

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The Total of the Month is Spreadhound's showcase play for the period, reserved for a position with a strong case and one of our three largest stake sizes. This Arkansas at Auburn Under carried 2.75% of bankroll because our model projected a total of 48.37, 5.13 points below the market number of 53.5.

Before kickoff, the matchup pointed to a lower-scoring game. Auburn had averaged 18.8 points over its previous five games, while Arkansas had averaged 19.8. Their combined recent scoring averages were 38.6 points, well below the market total.

Conditions added support to the case. The forecast was 41°F with 14 mph winds, and our model reduced the total by 1.1 points for the weather. Both teams also had relevant absences in the passing game, though Auburn's 4.2 yards per rush compared with Arkansas's 3.1 was the main risk we identified.

The final score was Arkansas 23, Auburn 26, for 49 points combined. That stayed under 53.5 by 4.5 points, so the play won and returned 2.46 units. The result matched the lower-scoring case, though the final score alone does not tell us how every drive unfolded.

The 65% hit probability supported a meaningful but measured stake, rather than certainty. The key pregame gap was the model's 48.37 total against the market's 53.5, with recent scoring and the weather pointing in the same direction.

See this week's current plays for the latest matchups, numbers and reasoning. The Total of the Month is a recap of a result already settled, while this week's plays cover the games ahead.

See this week's plays, the full write ups and the graded record at spreadhound.com/pricing.