Skip to content

Model vs market

Every game the model priced this week, its spread and total next to the market's, biggest disagreement first. Spreads are for the home team. A gap is not a bet on its own: the market is right most of the time, and the model only stakes a play when the gap clears a much higher bar.

The board is between weeks

Lines are priced Tuesday for college and Wednesday for the NFL.

"n/a" means the model has no reliable read on that market, usually a team with too little history. Lines are the ones the model priced against; check your book before you bet.

Where the gap is big enough, it becomes a play

Plays go to members the moment they publish, staked at 1% to 3% of bankroll and graded in public afterwards.