Model vs market
Every game the model priced this week, its spread and total next to the market's, biggest disagreement first. Spreads are for the home team. A gap is not a bet on its own: the market is right most of the time, and the model only stakes a play when the gap clears a much higher bar.
5 games are left off: the model has a play there, and its numbers would give the side away. Members get those plays.
| Game | Spread market | Model | Gap | Total market | Model | Gap | Lean |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BGSU at M-OH NCAAF · Sat 3:30 PM ET | -13.5 | -16.5 | 3.0 | 42.5 | 46 | 3.5 | Miami (OH) RedHawks -13.5 |
| UCF at HOU NCAAF · Sat 12:00 PM ET | n/a | n/a | n/a | 51.5 | 54.5 | 3.0 | Over 51.5 |
| ALA at MSST NCAAF · Sat 12:00 PM ET | +6 | +6 | 0.0 | 60.5 | 63.5 | 3.0 | Over 60.5 |
| VAN at UGA NCAAF · Sat 12:45 PM ET | -24.5 | -25.5 | 1.0 | 50.5 | 53.5 | 3.0 | Georgia Bulldogs -24.5 |
| MTSU at KU NCAAF · Sat 12:00 PM ET | -19.5 | -17 | 2.5 | 50.5 | 48 | 2.5 | Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +19.5 |
| WVU at ISU NCAAF · Sat 12:00 PM ET | -3 | -0.5 | 2.5 | 52.5 | 52 | 0.5 | West Virginia Mountaineers +3 |
| OHIO at KENT NCAAF · Sat 3:30 PM ET | +3 | +0.5 | 2.5 | 50.5 | 52.5 | 2.0 | Kent State Golden Flashes +3 |
| WYO at NDSU NCAAF · Sat 3:30 PM ET | n/a | n/a | n/a | 45.5 | 43 | 2.5 | Under 45.5 |
| OSU at IOWA NCAAF · Sat 3:30 PM ET | +14 | +11.5 | 2.5 | 45.5 | 45 | 0.5 | Iowa Hawkeyes +14 |
| UTEP at UNM NCAAF · Sat 4:00 PM ET | -22.5 | -24.5 | 2.0 | 48.5 | 51 | 2.5 | New Mexico Lobos -22.5 |
| PUR at ILL NCAAF · Sat 4:15 PM ET | -10 | -7.5 | 2.5 | 61.5 | 63.5 | 2.0 | Purdue Boilermakers +10 |
| ARK at TA&M NCAAF · Sat 7:00 PM ET | -14 | -13 | 1.0 | 51.5 | 49 | 2.5 | Arkansas Razorbacks +14 |
| ULM at USA NCAAF · Sat 7:00 PM ET | -14 | -14.5 | 0.5 | 56.5 | 59 | 2.5 | Over 56.5 |
| WASH at USC NCAAF · Sat 7:30 PM ET | -9.5 | -9.5 | 0.0 | 57.5 | 55 | 2.5 | Under 57.5 |
| ARST at UL NCAAF · Sat 8:00 PM ET | -6.5 | -9 | 2.5 | 46.5 | 46 | 0.5 | Louisiana Ragin' Cajuns -6.5 |
| LIB at DEL NCAAF · Fri 7:00 PM ET | +7 | +5 | 2.0 | 49.5 | 48 | 1.5 | Delaware Blue Hens +7 |
| PITT at VT NCAAF · Fri 7:00 PM ET | -3.5 | -3.5 | 0.0 | 54.5 | 52.5 | 2.0 | Under 54.5 |
| ND at UNC NCAAF · Sat 12:00 PM ET | +21 | +23 | 2.0 | 47.5 | 45.5 | 2.0 | Notre Dame Fighting Irish -21 |
| AUB at TENN NCAAF · Sat 3:30 PM ET | n/a | n/a | n/a | 53.5 | 51.5 | 2.0 | Under 53.5 |
| ODU at GAST NCAAF · Sat 3:30 PM ET | -1.5 | -3 | 1.5 | 50.5 | 52.5 | 2.0 | Georgia State Panthers -1.5 |
| MRSH at JMU NCAAF · Sat 3:45 PM ET | -18.5 | -20.5 | 2.0 | 55.5 | 56 | 0.5 | James Madison Dukes -18.5 |
| UK at SC NCAAF · Sat 4:15 PM ET | n/a | n/a | n/a | 53.5 | 55.5 | 2.0 | Over 53.5 |
| ORST at CSU NCAAF · Sat 6:00 PM ET | +6 | +4 | 2.0 | 60.5 | 61.5 | 1.0 | Colorado State Rams +6 |
| UTSA at RICE NCAAF · Sat 7:00 PM ET | +11.5 | +13.5 | 2.0 | 54.5 | 55 | 0.5 | UTSA Roadrunners -11.5 |
| IU at RUTG NCAAF · Sat 8:00 PM ET | +24.5 | +23.5 | 1.0 | 56.5 | 54.5 | 2.0 | Rutgers Scarlet Knights +24.5 |
| TXST at SDSU NCAAF · Sat 10:30 PM ET | +4.5 | +5 | 0.5 | 59.5 | 57.5 | 2.0 | Texas State Bobcats -4.5 |
| CIN at ARIZ NCAAF · Sat 11:00 PM ET | -7 | -9 | 2.0 | 54.5 | 54.5 | 0.0 | Arizona Wildcats -7 |
| WKU at NMSU NCAAF · Thu 8:00 PM ET | -2.5 | -1 | 1.5 | 57.5 | 58 | 0.5 | Western Kentucky Hilltoppers +2.5 |
| UNT at TLSA NCAAF · Thu 9:00 PM ET | -1.5 | -1.5 | 0.0 | 57.5 | 56 | 1.5 | Under 57.5 |
| SYR at CONN NCAAF · Sat 12:00 PM ET | +6.5 | +8 | 1.5 | 50.5 | 51 | 0.5 | Syracuse Orange -6.5 |
| WMU at BUFF NCAAF · Sat 1:00 PM ET | n/a | n/a | n/a | 46.5 | 48 | 1.5 | Over 46.5 |
| TOL at BALL NCAAF · Sat 2:00 PM ET | +19.5 | +18 | 1.5 | n/a | n/a | n/a | Ball State Cardinals +19.5 |
| AKR at CMU NCAAF · Sat 3:30 PM ET | -6.5 | -5 | 1.5 | 46.5 | 45 | 1.5 | Akron Zips +6.5 |
| MD at NEB NCAAF · Sat 4:00 PM ET | -14.5 | -13 | 1.5 | 52.5 | 52.5 | 0.0 | Maryland Terrapins +14.5 |
| BYU at TCU NCAAF · Sat 7:00 PM ET | +6.5 | +6.5 | 0.0 | 48.5 | 47 | 1.5 | Under 48.5 |
| TTU at COLO NCAAF · Sat 7:30 PM ET | +13.5 | +14 | 0.5 | 50.5 | 49 | 1.5 | Under 50.5 |
| TEM at USF NCAAF · Sat 7:30 PM ET | -6 | -4.5 | 1.5 | 49.5 | 48.5 | 1.0 | Temple Owls +6 |
| PSU at NU NCAAF · Fri 8:00 PM ET | +2.5 | +1.5 | 1.0 | 45.5 | 44.5 | 1.0 | Northwestern Wildcats +2.5 |
| BC at SMU NCAAF · Sat 12:00 PM ET | -21 | -20 | 1.0 | n/a | n/a | n/a | Boston College Eagles +21 |
| MICH at MINN NCAAF · Sat 12:00 PM ET | +5.5 | +4.5 | 1.0 | 43.5 | 43 | 0.5 | Minnesota Golden Gophers +5.5 |
| USU at BOIS NCAAF · Sat 7:30 PM ET | -19.5 | -18.5 | 1.0 | n/a | n/a | n/a | Utah State Aggies +19.5 |
| STAN at WAKE NCAAF · Sat 12:00 PM ET | -13.5 | -13.5 | 0.0 | 53.5 | 54 | 0.5 | None |
| NAVY at AFA NCAAF · Sat 12:00 PM ET | -3.5 | -3 | 0.5 | n/a | n/a | n/a | Navy Midshipmen +3.5 |
| MSU at WIS NCAAF · Sat 12:30 PM ET | -10.5 | -11 | 0.5 | 43.5 | 43 | 0.5 | Michigan State Spartans moneyline +320 |
| FLA at MIZ NCAAF · Sat 3:30 PM ET | +4.5 | +5 | 0.5 | n/a | n/a | n/a | Florida Gators -4.5 |
| UVA at FSU NCAAF · Sat 3:30 PM ET | +2.5 | +2 | 0.5 | 51.5 | 51 | 0.5 | Florida State Seminoles +2.5 |
| MIA at CLEM NCAAF · Sat 7:30 PM ET | +16.5 | +17 | 0.5 | 48.5 | 49 | 0.5 | Miami Hurricanes -16.5 |
| FRES at WSU NCAAF · Sat 9:30 PM ET | n/a | n/a | n/a | 46.5 | 46 | 0.5 | None |
| ARMY at LT NCAAF · Sat 7:30 PM ET | +2.5 | +2.5 | 0.0 | n/a | n/a | n/a | None |
"n/a" means the model has no reliable read on that market, usually a team with too little history. Lines are the ones the model priced against; check your book before you bet.
Where the gap is big enough, it becomes a play
Plays go to members the moment they publish, staked at 1% to 3% of bankroll and graded in public afterwards.