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NCAAFWeek 5

Ohio State Buckeyes vs Iowa Hawkeyes prediction and odds

Saturday, October 3 at 3:30 PM ET · Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, IA · CBS

Market vs model

LineMarketModel
SpreadIowa Hawkeyes +14Iowa Hawkeyes +11.5
Total45.545
MoneylineIOWA +425 / OSU -575IOWA 24% to win

Line movement: the total opened at 44.5.

Model lean: Iowa Hawkeyes +14 (56%), Iowa Hawkeyes moneyline +425 (24%)

A lean is an opinion without a stake. The model only publishes a play when its disagreement with the market clears a much higher bar.

See every game, model against market

Preview

No. 5 Ohio State Buckeyes (3-1) visit No. 14 Iowa Hawkeyes (4-0) at Kinnick Stadium, Iowa City, IA, Saturday, October 3 at 3:30 PM ET, on CBS. The market has Ohio State Buckeyes by 14, with a total of 45.5. Our model makes it Iowa Hawkeyes +11.5 with a total of 45 and gives Iowa Hawkeyes a 24% chance to win.

How the numbers are made: the model prices every game from unit grades, power ratings, results, rest and weather, then compares its line with the market. More on the method.

Ohio State Buckeyes vs Iowa Hawkeyes: questions

Who is favored in Ohio State Buckeyes vs Iowa Hawkeyes?
The market has Ohio State Buckeyes by 14. On the moneyline, Iowa Hawkeyes +425 and Ohio State Buckeyes -575.
What is the over/under for Ohio State Buckeyes vs Iowa Hawkeyes?
The total is 45.5, after opening at 44.5. Our model makes it 45.
What does the model predict for Ohio State Buckeyes vs Iowa Hawkeyes?
It leans Iowa Hawkeyes +14 (56%) and Iowa Hawkeyes moneyline +425 (24%). A lean is an opinion without a stake: the gap to the market was not big enough to make it a play.

The plays go to members

Leans are free. The plays, where the model disagrees with the market enough to stake 1% to 3% of bankroll, go to members by email the moment they publish.

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Analysis only, not betting advice. Lines move; check your book before you bet. Bet only what you can afford to lose.