Who is favored in Penn State Nittany Lions vs Northwestern Wildcats?

The market has Penn State Nittany Lions by 2.5. On the moneyline, Northwestern Wildcats +120 and Penn State Nittany Lions -142.

What is the over/under for Penn State Nittany Lions vs Northwestern Wildcats?

The total is 45.5, after opening at 48.5. Our model makes it 44.5.

What does the model predict for Penn State Nittany Lions vs Northwestern Wildcats?

It leans Northwestern Wildcats +2.5 (52%) and Under 45.5 (53%). A lean is an opinion without a stake: the gap to the market was not big enough to make it a play.

NCAAFWeek 5

Penn State Nittany Lions vs Northwestern Wildcats prediction and odds

Friday, October 2 at 8:00 PM ET · Ryan Field, Evanston, IL · FOX

Market vs model

Line	Market	Model
Spread	Northwestern Wildcats +2.5	Northwestern Wildcats +1.5
Total	45.5	44.5
Moneyline	NU +120 / PSU -142	NU 46% to win

Line movement: the spread opened Northwestern Wildcats +7, the total opened at 48.5.

Model lean: Northwestern Wildcats +2.5 (52%), Under 45.5 (53%)

A lean is an opinion without a stake. The model only publishes a play when its disagreement with the market clears a much higher bar.

See every game, model against market

Preview

Penn State Nittany Lions (3-1) visit Northwestern Wildcats (2-1) at Ryan Field, Evanston, IL, Friday, October 2 at 8:00 PM ET, on FOX. The market has Penn State Nittany Lions by 2.5, with a total of 45.5. The line opened Northwestern Wildcats +7. Our model makes it Northwestern Wildcats +1.5 with a total of 44.5 and gives Northwestern Wildcats a 46% chance to win.

How the numbers are made: the model prices every game from unit grades, power ratings, results, rest and weather, then compares its line with the market. More on the method.

Penn State Nittany Lions vs Northwestern Wildcats: questions

Who is favored in Penn State Nittany Lions vs Northwestern Wildcats?: The market has Penn State Nittany Lions by 2.5. On the moneyline, Northwestern Wildcats +120 and Penn State Nittany Lions -142.
What is the over/under for Penn State Nittany Lions vs Northwestern Wildcats?: The total is 45.5, after opening at 48.5. Our model makes it 44.5.
What does the model predict for Penn State Nittany Lions vs Northwestern Wildcats?: It leans Northwestern Wildcats +2.5 (52%) and Under 45.5 (53%). A lean is an opinion without a stake: the gap to the market was not big enough to make it a play.

The plays go to members

Leans are free. The plays, where the model disagrees with the market enough to stake 1% to 3% of bankroll, go to members by email the moment they publish.

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Analysis only, not betting advice. Lines move; check your book before you bet. Bet only what you can afford to lose.