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NCAAFWeek 5

Boston College Eagles vs SMU Mustangs prediction and odds

Saturday, October 3 at 12:00 PM ET · Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX · CW

Market vs model

LineMarketModel
SpreadSMU Mustangs -21SMU Mustangs -20
MoneylineSMU -1650 / BC +950SMU 89% to win

Line movement: the total opened at 56.5.

Model lean: Boston College Eagles +21 (53%)

A lean is an opinion without a stake. The model only publishes a play when its disagreement with the market clears a much higher bar.

See every game, model against market

Preview

Boston College Eagles (2-2) visit No. 21 SMU Mustangs (3-1) at Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX, Saturday, October 3 at 12:00 PM ET, on CW. The market has SMU Mustangs by 21, with a total of 55.5. Our model makes it SMU Mustangs -20 and gives SMU Mustangs a 89% chance to win.

How the numbers are made: the model prices every game from unit grades, power ratings, results, rest and weather, then compares its line with the market. More on the method.

Boston College Eagles vs SMU Mustangs: questions

Who is favored in Boston College Eagles vs SMU Mustangs?
The market has SMU Mustangs by 21. On the moneyline, SMU Mustangs -1650 and Boston College Eagles +950.
What is the over/under for Boston College Eagles vs SMU Mustangs?
The total is 55.5, after opening at 56.5.
What does the model predict for Boston College Eagles vs SMU Mustangs?
It leans Boston College Eagles +21 (53%). A lean is an opinion without a stake: the gap to the market was not big enough to make it a play.

The plays go to members

Leans are free. The plays, where the model disagrees with the market enough to stake 1% to 3% of bankroll, go to members by email the moment they publish.

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Analysis only, not betting advice. Lines move; check your book before you bet. Bet only what you can afford to lose.