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NCAAFWeek 5

Oregon State Beavers vs Colorado State Rams prediction and odds

Saturday, October 3 at 6:00 PM ET · Canvas Stadium, Fort Collins, CO · USA Net

Market vs model

LineMarketModel
SpreadColorado State Rams +6Colorado State Rams +4
Total60.561.5
MoneylineCSU +190 / ORST -230CSU 40% to win

Line movement: the spread opened Colorado State Rams +3.5, the total opened at 59.5.

Model lean: Colorado State Rams +6 (55%), Over 60.5 (53%), Colorado State Rams moneyline +190 (40%)

A lean is an opinion without a stake. The model only publishes a play when its disagreement with the market clears a much higher bar.

See every game, model against market

Preview

Oregon State Beavers (2-2) visit Colorado State Rams (2-2) at Canvas Stadium, Fort Collins, CO, Saturday, October 3 at 6:00 PM ET, on USA Net. The market has Oregon State Beavers by 6, with a total of 60.5. The line opened Colorado State Rams +3.5. Our model makes it Colorado State Rams +4 with a total of 61.5 and gives Colorado State Rams a 40% chance to win.

How the numbers are made: the model prices every game from unit grades, power ratings, results, rest and weather, then compares its line with the market. More on the method.

Oregon State Beavers vs Colorado State Rams: questions

Who is favored in Oregon State Beavers vs Colorado State Rams?
The market has Oregon State Beavers by 6. On the moneyline, Colorado State Rams +190 and Oregon State Beavers -230.
What is the over/under for Oregon State Beavers vs Colorado State Rams?
The total is 60.5, after opening at 59.5. Our model makes it 61.5.
What does the model predict for Oregon State Beavers vs Colorado State Rams?
It leans Colorado State Rams +6 (55%) and Over 60.5 (53%) and Colorado State Rams moneyline +190 (40%). A lean is an opinion without a stake: the gap to the market was not big enough to make it a play.

The plays go to members

Leans are free. The plays, where the model disagrees with the market enough to stake 1% to 3% of bankroll, go to members by email the moment they publish.

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Analysis only, not betting advice. Lines move; check your book before you bet. Bet only what you can afford to lose.