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NCAAFWeek 5

Auburn Tigers vs Tennessee Volunteers prediction and odds

Saturday, October 3 at 3:30 PM ET · Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN · ESPN

Market vs model

LineMarketModel
Total53.551.5

Line movement: the spread opened Tennessee Volunteers -7.5, the total opened at 57.5.

Model lean: Under 53.5 (56%)

A lean is an opinion without a stake. The model only publishes a play when its disagreement with the market clears a much higher bar.

See every game, model against market

Preview

Auburn Tigers (3-1) visit No. 17 Tennessee Volunteers (3-1) at Neyland Stadium, Knoxville, TN, Saturday, October 3 at 3:30 PM ET, on ESPN. The market has Tennessee Volunteers by 7, with a total of 53.5. The line opened Tennessee Volunteers -7.5. Our model has a total of 51.5.

How the numbers are made: the model prices every game from unit grades, power ratings, results, rest and weather, then compares its line with the market. More on the method.

Auburn Tigers vs Tennessee Volunteers: questions

Who is favored in Auburn Tigers vs Tennessee Volunteers?
The market has Tennessee Volunteers by 7. On the moneyline, Tennessee Volunteers -285 and Auburn Tigers +230.
What is the over/under for Auburn Tigers vs Tennessee Volunteers?
The total is 53.5, after opening at 57.5. Our model makes it 51.5.
What does the model predict for Auburn Tigers vs Tennessee Volunteers?
It leans Under 53.5 (56%). A lean is an opinion without a stake: the gap to the market was not big enough to make it a play.

The plays go to members

Leans are free. The plays, where the model disagrees with the market enough to stake 1% to 3% of bankroll, go to members by email the moment they publish.

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Analysis only, not betting advice. Lines move; check your book before you bet. Bet only what you can afford to lose.