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NCAAFWeek 5

UTSA Roadrunners vs Rice Owls prediction and odds

Saturday, October 3 at 7:00 PM ET · Rice Stadium, Houston, TX · ESPN+

Market vs model

LineMarketModel
SpreadRice Owls +11.5Rice Owls +13.5
Total54.555
MoneylineRICE +350 / UTSA -455RICE 20% to win

Line movement: the spread opened Rice Owls +12.5, the total opened at 52.5.

Model lean: UTSA Roadrunners -11.5 (55%)

A lean is an opinion without a stake. The model only publishes a play when its disagreement with the market clears a much higher bar.

See every game, model against market

Preview

UTSA Roadrunners (3-1) visit Rice Owls (1-3) at Rice Stadium, Houston, TX, Saturday, October 3 at 7:00 PM ET, on ESPN+. The market has UTSA Roadrunners by 11.5, with a total of 54.5. The line opened Rice Owls +12.5. Our model makes it Rice Owls +13.5 with a total of 55 and gives Rice Owls a 20% chance to win.

How the numbers are made: the model prices every game from unit grades, power ratings, results, rest and weather, then compares its line with the market. More on the method.

UTSA Roadrunners vs Rice Owls: questions

Who is favored in UTSA Roadrunners vs Rice Owls?
The market has UTSA Roadrunners by 11.5. On the moneyline, Rice Owls +350 and UTSA Roadrunners -455.
What is the over/under for UTSA Roadrunners vs Rice Owls?
The total is 54.5, after opening at 52.5. Our model makes it 55.
What does the model predict for UTSA Roadrunners vs Rice Owls?
It leans UTSA Roadrunners -11.5 (55%). A lean is an opinion without a stake: the gap to the market was not big enough to make it a play.

The plays go to members

Leans are free. The plays, where the model disagrees with the market enough to stake 1% to 3% of bankroll, go to members by email the moment they publish.

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Analysis only, not betting advice. Lines move; check your book before you bet. Bet only what you can afford to lose.