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NCAAFWeek 5

Temple Owls vs South Florida Bulls prediction and odds

Saturday, October 3 at 7:30 PM ET · Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL · ESPNU

Market vs model

LineMarketModel
SpreadSouth Florida Bulls -6South Florida Bulls -4.5
Total49.548.5
MoneylineUSF -238 / TEM +195USF 62% to win

Line movement: the spread opened South Florida Bulls -6.5, the total opened at 52.5.

Model lean: Temple Owls +6 (53%), Under 49.5 (53%), Temple Owls moneyline +195 (38%)

A lean is an opinion without a stake. The model only publishes a play when its disagreement with the market clears a much higher bar.

See every game, model against market

Preview

Temple Owls (1-3) visit South Florida Bulls (4-0) at Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL, Saturday, October 3 at 7:30 PM ET, on ESPNU. The market has South Florida Bulls by 6, with a total of 49.5. The line opened South Florida Bulls -6.5. Our model makes it South Florida Bulls -4.5 with a total of 48.5 and gives South Florida Bulls a 62% chance to win.

How the numbers are made: the model prices every game from unit grades, power ratings, results, rest and weather, then compares its line with the market. More on the method.

Temple Owls vs South Florida Bulls: questions

Who is favored in Temple Owls vs South Florida Bulls?
The market has South Florida Bulls by 6. On the moneyline, South Florida Bulls -238 and Temple Owls +195.
What is the over/under for Temple Owls vs South Florida Bulls?
The total is 49.5, after opening at 52.5. Our model makes it 48.5.
What does the model predict for Temple Owls vs South Florida Bulls?
It leans Temple Owls +6 (53%) and Under 49.5 (53%) and Temple Owls moneyline +195 (38%). A lean is an opinion without a stake: the gap to the market was not big enough to make it a play.

The plays go to members

Leans are free. The plays, where the model disagrees with the market enough to stake 1% to 3% of bankroll, go to members by email the moment they publish.

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Analysis only, not betting advice. Lines move; check your book before you bet. Bet only what you can afford to lose.