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NCAAFWeek 5

Arkansas Razorbacks vs Texas A&M Aggies prediction and odds

Saturday, October 3 at 7:00 PM ET · Kyle Field, College Station, TX · ESPN2

Market vs model

LineMarketModel
SpreadTexas A&M Aggies -14Texas A&M Aggies -13
Total51.549
MoneylineTA&M -625 / ARK +455TA&M 79% to win

Line movement: the spread opened Texas A&M Aggies -14.5.

Model lean: Arkansas Razorbacks +14 (52%), Under 51.5 (58%), Arkansas Razorbacks moneyline +455 (21%)

A lean is an opinion without a stake. The model only publishes a play when its disagreement with the market clears a much higher bar.

See every game, model against market

Preview

Arkansas Razorbacks (2-2) visit Texas A&M Aggies (2-2) at Kyle Field, College Station, TX, Saturday, October 3 at 7:00 PM ET, on ESPN2. The market has Texas A&M Aggies by 14, with a total of 51.5. The line opened Texas A&M Aggies -14.5. Our model makes it Texas A&M Aggies -13 with a total of 49 and gives Texas A&M Aggies a 79% chance to win.

How the numbers are made: the model prices every game from unit grades, power ratings, results, rest and weather, then compares its line with the market. More on the method.

Arkansas Razorbacks vs Texas A&M Aggies: questions

Who is favored in Arkansas Razorbacks vs Texas A&M Aggies?
The market has Texas A&M Aggies by 14. On the moneyline, Texas A&M Aggies -625 and Arkansas Razorbacks +455.
What is the over/under for Arkansas Razorbacks vs Texas A&M Aggies?
The total is 51.5. Our model makes it 49.
What does the model predict for Arkansas Razorbacks vs Texas A&M Aggies?
It leans Arkansas Razorbacks +14 (52%) and Under 51.5 (58%) and Arkansas Razorbacks moneyline +455 (21%). A lean is an opinion without a stake: the gap to the market was not big enough to make it a play.

The plays go to members

Leans are free. The plays, where the model disagrees with the market enough to stake 1% to 3% of bankroll, go to members by email the moment they publish.

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Analysis only, not betting advice. Lines move; check your book before you bet. Bet only what you can afford to lose.