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NCAAFWeek 5

Akron Zips vs Central Michigan Chippewas prediction and odds

Saturday, October 3 at 3:30 PM ET · Kelly/Shorts Stadium, Mount Pleasant, MI · ESPN+

Market vs model

LineMarketModel
SpreadCentral Michigan Chippewas -6.5Central Michigan Chippewas -5
Total46.545
MoneylineCMU -238 / AKR +195CMU 62% to win

Line movement: the spread opened Central Michigan Chippewas -5.5.

Model lean: Akron Zips +6.5 (53%), Under 46.5 (55%), Akron Zips moneyline +195 (38%)

A lean is an opinion without a stake. The model only publishes a play when its disagreement with the market clears a much higher bar.

See every game, model against market

Preview

Akron Zips (1-3) visit Central Michigan Chippewas (2-2) at Kelly/Shorts Stadium, Mount Pleasant, MI, Saturday, October 3 at 3:30 PM ET, on ESPN+. The market has Central Michigan Chippewas by 6.5, with a total of 46.5. The line opened Central Michigan Chippewas -5.5. Our model makes it Central Michigan Chippewas -5 with a total of 45 and gives Central Michigan Chippewas a 62% chance to win.

How the numbers are made: the model prices every game from unit grades, power ratings, results, rest and weather, then compares its line with the market. More on the method.

Akron Zips vs Central Michigan Chippewas: questions

Who is favored in Akron Zips vs Central Michigan Chippewas?
The market has Central Michigan Chippewas by 6.5. On the moneyline, Central Michigan Chippewas -238 and Akron Zips +195.
What is the over/under for Akron Zips vs Central Michigan Chippewas?
The total is 46.5. Our model makes it 45.
What does the model predict for Akron Zips vs Central Michigan Chippewas?
It leans Akron Zips +6.5 (53%) and Under 46.5 (55%) and Akron Zips moneyline +195 (38%). A lean is an opinion without a stake: the gap to the market was not big enough to make it a play.

The plays go to members

Leans are free. The plays, where the model disagrees with the market enough to stake 1% to 3% of bankroll, go to members by email the moment they publish.

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Analysis only, not betting advice. Lines move; check your book before you bet. Bet only what you can afford to lose.