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NCAAFWeek 5

Marshall Thundering Herd vs James Madison Dukes prediction and odds

Saturday, October 3 at 3:45 PM ET · Bridgeforth Stadium, Harrisonburg, VA · ESPNU

Market vs model

LineMarketModel
SpreadJames Madison Dukes -18.5James Madison Dukes -20.5
Total55.556
MoneylineJMU -1000 / MRSH +650JMU 90% to win

Line movement: the spread opened James Madison Dukes -13.5.

Model lean: James Madison Dukes -18.5 (55%)

A lean is an opinion without a stake. The model only publishes a play when its disagreement with the market clears a much higher bar.

See every game, model against market

Preview

Marshall Thundering Herd (3-1) visit James Madison Dukes (4-0) at Bridgeforth Stadium, Harrisonburg, VA, Saturday, October 3 at 3:45 PM ET, on ESPNU. The market has James Madison Dukes by 18.5, with a total of 55.5. The line opened James Madison Dukes -13.5. Our model makes it James Madison Dukes -20.5 with a total of 56 and gives James Madison Dukes a 90% chance to win.

How the numbers are made: the model prices every game from unit grades, power ratings, results, rest and weather, then compares its line with the market. More on the method.

Marshall Thundering Herd vs James Madison Dukes: questions

Who is favored in Marshall Thundering Herd vs James Madison Dukes?
The market has James Madison Dukes by 18.5. On the moneyline, James Madison Dukes -1000 and Marshall Thundering Herd +650.
What is the over/under for Marshall Thundering Herd vs James Madison Dukes?
The total is 55.5. Our model makes it 56.
What does the model predict for Marshall Thundering Herd vs James Madison Dukes?
It leans James Madison Dukes -18.5 (55%). A lean is an opinion without a stake: the gap to the market was not big enough to make it a play.

The plays go to members

Leans are free. The plays, where the model disagrees with the market enough to stake 1% to 3% of bankroll, go to members by email the moment they publish.

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Analysis only, not betting advice. Lines move; check your book before you bet. Bet only what you can afford to lose.