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NCAAFWeek 5

Purdue Boilermakers vs Illinois Fighting Illini prediction and odds

Saturday, October 3 at 4:15 PM ET · Gies Memorial Stadium, Champaign, IL · BTN

Market vs model

LineMarketModel
SpreadIllinois Fighting Illini -10Illinois Fighting Illini -7.5
Total61.563.5
MoneylineILL -375 / PUR +295ILL 68% to win

Line movement: the total opened at 60.5.

Model lean: Purdue Boilermakers +10 (56%), Over 61.5 (56%), Purdue Boilermakers moneyline +295 (32%)

A lean is an opinion without a stake. The model only publishes a play when its disagreement with the market clears a much higher bar.

See every game, model against market

Preview

Purdue Boilermakers (1-3) visit Illinois Fighting Illini (2-2) at Gies Memorial Stadium, Champaign, IL, Saturday, October 3 at 4:15 PM ET, on BTN. The market has Illinois Fighting Illini by 10, with a total of 61.5. Our model makes it Illinois Fighting Illini -7.5 with a total of 63.5 and gives Illinois Fighting Illini a 68% chance to win.

How the numbers are made: the model prices every game from unit grades, power ratings, results, rest and weather, then compares its line with the market. More on the method.

Purdue Boilermakers vs Illinois Fighting Illini: questions

Who is favored in Purdue Boilermakers vs Illinois Fighting Illini?
The market has Illinois Fighting Illini by 10. On the moneyline, Illinois Fighting Illini -375 and Purdue Boilermakers +295.
What is the over/under for Purdue Boilermakers vs Illinois Fighting Illini?
The total is 61.5, after opening at 60.5. Our model makes it 63.5.
What does the model predict for Purdue Boilermakers vs Illinois Fighting Illini?
It leans Purdue Boilermakers +10 (56%) and Over 61.5 (56%) and Purdue Boilermakers moneyline +295 (32%). A lean is an opinion without a stake: the gap to the market was not big enough to make it a play.

The plays go to members

Leans are free. The plays, where the model disagrees with the market enough to stake 1% to 3% of bankroll, go to members by email the moment they publish.

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Analysis only, not betting advice. Lines move; check your book before you bet. Bet only what you can afford to lose.