Alabama Crimson Tide vs Mississippi State Bulldogs prediction and odds
Saturday, October 3 at 12:00 PM ET · Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS · ABC
Market vs model
| Line | Market | Model |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | Mississippi State Bulldogs +6 | Mississippi State Bulldogs +6 |
| Total | 60.5 | 63.5 |
| Moneyline | MSST +185 / ALA -225 | MSST 36% to win |
Line movement: the spread opened Mississippi State Bulldogs +3, the total opened at 58.5.
Model lean: Over 60.5 (59%), Mississippi State Bulldogs moneyline +185 (36%)
A lean is an opinion without a stake. The model only publishes a play when its disagreement with the market clears a much higher bar.
Preview
No. 7 Alabama Crimson Tide (4-0) visit No. 16 Mississippi State Bulldogs (4-0) at Davis Wade Stadium, Starkville, MS, Saturday, October 3 at 12:00 PM ET, on ABC. The market has Alabama Crimson Tide by 6, with a total of 60.5. The line opened Mississippi State Bulldogs +3. Our model makes it Mississippi State Bulldogs +6 with a total of 63.5 and gives Mississippi State Bulldogs a 36% chance to win.
How the numbers are made: the model prices every game from unit grades, power ratings, results, rest and weather, then compares its line with the market. More on the method.
Alabama Crimson Tide vs Mississippi State Bulldogs: questions
- Who is favored in Alabama Crimson Tide vs Mississippi State Bulldogs?
- The market has Alabama Crimson Tide by 6. On the moneyline, Mississippi State Bulldogs +185 and Alabama Crimson Tide -225.
- What is the over/under for Alabama Crimson Tide vs Mississippi State Bulldogs?
- The total is 60.5, after opening at 58.5. Our model makes it 63.5.
- What does the model predict for Alabama Crimson Tide vs Mississippi State Bulldogs?
- It leans Over 60.5 (59%) and Mississippi State Bulldogs moneyline +185 (36%). A lean is an opinion without a stake: the gap to the market was not big enough to make it a play.
The plays go to members
Leans are free. The plays, where the model disagrees with the market enough to stake 1% to 3% of bankroll, go to members by email the moment they publish.
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Analysis only, not betting advice. Lines move; check your book before you bet. Bet only what you can afford to lose.