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NCAAFWeek 5

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs Kansas Jayhawks prediction and odds

Saturday, October 3 at 12:00 PM ET · David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium, Lawrence, KS · ESPNU

Market vs model

LineMarketModel
SpreadKansas Jayhawks -19.5Kansas Jayhawks -17
Total50.548
MoneylineKU -1350 / MTSU +800KU 85% to win

Line movement: the spread opened Kansas Jayhawks -21.5, the total opened at 52.5.

Model lean: Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +19.5 (57%), Under 50.5 (57%), Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders moneyline +800 (15%)

A lean is an opinion without a stake. The model only publishes a play when its disagreement with the market clears a much higher bar.

See every game, model against market

Preview

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders (2-2) visit Kansas Jayhawks (1-2) at David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium, Lawrence, KS, Saturday, October 3 at 12:00 PM ET, on ESPNU. The market has Kansas Jayhawks by 19.5, with a total of 50.5. The line opened Kansas Jayhawks -21.5. Our model makes it Kansas Jayhawks -17 with a total of 48 and gives Kansas Jayhawks a 85% chance to win.

How the numbers are made: the model prices every game from unit grades, power ratings, results, rest and weather, then compares its line with the market. More on the method.

Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs Kansas Jayhawks: questions

Who is favored in Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs Kansas Jayhawks?
The market has Kansas Jayhawks by 19.5. On the moneyline, Kansas Jayhawks -1350 and Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +800.
What is the over/under for Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs Kansas Jayhawks?
The total is 50.5, after opening at 52.5. Our model makes it 48.
What does the model predict for Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders vs Kansas Jayhawks?
It leans Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders +19.5 (57%) and Under 50.5 (57%) and Middle Tennessee Blue Raiders moneyline +800 (15%). A lean is an opinion without a stake: the gap to the market was not big enough to make it a play.

The plays go to members

Leans are free. The plays, where the model disagrees with the market enough to stake 1% to 3% of bankroll, go to members by email the moment they publish.

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Analysis only, not betting advice. Lines move; check your book before you bet. Bet only what you can afford to lose.