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NCAAFWeek 5

Utah State Aggies vs Boise State Broncos prediction and odds

Saturday, October 3 at 7:30 PM ET · Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID · CBSSN

Market vs model

LineMarketModel
SpreadBoise State Broncos -19.5Boise State Broncos -18.5
MoneylineBOIS -1450 / USU +850BOIS 88% to win

Line movement: the spread opened Boise State Broncos -20.5, the total opened at 49.5.

Model lean: Utah State Aggies +19.5 (52%), Utah State Aggies moneyline +850 (12%)

A lean is an opinion without a stake. The model only publishes a play when its disagreement with the market clears a much higher bar.

See every game, model against market

Preview

Utah State Aggies (1-3) visit No. 22 Boise State Broncos (3-1) at Albertsons Stadium, Boise, ID, Saturday, October 3 at 7:30 PM ET, on CBSSN. The market has Boise State Broncos by 19.5, with a total of 51.5. The line opened Boise State Broncos -20.5. Our model makes it Boise State Broncos -18.5 and gives Boise State Broncos a 88% chance to win.

How the numbers are made: the model prices every game from unit grades, power ratings, results, rest and weather, then compares its line with the market. More on the method.

Utah State Aggies vs Boise State Broncos: questions

Who is favored in Utah State Aggies vs Boise State Broncos?
The market has Boise State Broncos by 19.5. On the moneyline, Boise State Broncos -1450 and Utah State Aggies +850.
What is the over/under for Utah State Aggies vs Boise State Broncos?
The total is 51.5, after opening at 49.5.
What does the model predict for Utah State Aggies vs Boise State Broncos?
It leans Utah State Aggies +19.5 (52%) and Utah State Aggies moneyline +850 (12%). A lean is an opinion without a stake: the gap to the market was not big enough to make it a play.

The plays go to members

Leans are free. The plays, where the model disagrees with the market enough to stake 1% to 3% of bankroll, go to members by email the moment they publish.

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Analysis only, not betting advice. Lines move; check your book before you bet. Bet only what you can afford to lose.