Who is favored in Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs North Carolina Tar Heels?

The market has Notre Dame Fighting Irish by 21. On the moneyline, North Carolina Tar Heels +1000 and Notre Dame Fighting Irish -1800.

What is the over/under for Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs North Carolina Tar Heels?

The total is 47.5, after opening at 55.5. Our model makes it 45.5.

What does the model predict for Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs North Carolina Tar Heels?

It leans Notre Dame Fighting Irish -21 (54%) and Under 47.5 (56%). A lean is an opinion without a stake: the gap to the market was not big enough to make it a play.

NCAAFWeek 5

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs North Carolina Tar Heels prediction and odds

Saturday, October 3 at 12:00 PM ET · Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill, NC · ESPN

Market vs model

Line	Market	Model
Spread	North Carolina Tar Heels +21	North Carolina Tar Heels +23
Total	47.5	45.5
Moneyline	UNC +1000 / ND -1800	UNC 8% to win

Line movement: the spread opened North Carolina Tar Heels +24.5, the total opened at 55.5.

Model lean: Notre Dame Fighting Irish -21 (54%), Under 47.5 (56%)

A lean is an opinion without a stake. The model only publishes a play when its disagreement with the market clears a much higher bar.

See every game, model against market

Preview

No. 3 Notre Dame Fighting Irish (4-0) visit North Carolina Tar Heels (2-1) at Kenan Stadium, Chapel Hill, NC, Saturday, October 3 at 12:00 PM ET, on ESPN. The market has Notre Dame Fighting Irish by 21, with a total of 47.5. The line opened North Carolina Tar Heels +24.5. Our model makes it North Carolina Tar Heels +23 with a total of 45.5 and gives North Carolina Tar Heels a 8% chance to win.

How the numbers are made: the model prices every game from unit grades, power ratings, results, rest and weather, then compares its line with the market. More on the method.

Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs North Carolina Tar Heels: questions

Who is favored in Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs North Carolina Tar Heels?: The market has Notre Dame Fighting Irish by 21. On the moneyline, North Carolina Tar Heels +1000 and Notre Dame Fighting Irish -1800.
What is the over/under for Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs North Carolina Tar Heels?: The total is 47.5, after opening at 55.5. Our model makes it 45.5.
What does the model predict for Notre Dame Fighting Irish vs North Carolina Tar Heels?: It leans Notre Dame Fighting Irish -21 (54%) and Under 47.5 (56%). A lean is an opinion without a stake: the gap to the market was not big enough to make it a play.

The plays go to members

Leans are free. The plays, where the model disagrees with the market enough to stake 1% to 3% of bankroll, go to members by email the moment they publish.

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Analysis only, not betting advice. Lines move; check your book before you bet. Bet only what you can afford to lose.