Virginia Cavaliers vs SMU Mustangs prediction and odds
Saturday, October 17 at 12:00 PM ET · Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX · CW
Also searched as SMU Mustangs vs Virginia Cavaliers prediction, UVA vs SMU, SMU vs UVA and Virginia Cavaliers versus SMU Mustangs.
Market vs model
| Line | Market | Model |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | SMU Mustangs -9.5 | SMU Mustangs -8.5 |
| Total | 51.5 | 51 |
| Moneyline | SMU -325 / UVA +260 | SMU 70% to win |
Line movement: the spread opened SMU Mustangs -7.5, the total opened at 53.5.
Model lean: Virginia Cavaliers +9.5 (53%), Virginia Cavaliers moneyline +260 (30%)
A lean is an opinion without a stake. The model only publishes a play when its disagreement with the market clears a much higher bar.
Preview
Virginia Cavaliers (4-2) visit No. 24 SMU Mustangs (4-1) at Gerald J. Ford Stadium, Dallas, TX, Saturday, October 17 at 12:00 PM ET, on CW. The market has SMU Mustangs by 9.5, with a total of 51.5. The line opened SMU Mustangs -7.5. Our model makes it SMU Mustangs -8.5 with a total of 51 and gives SMU Mustangs a 70% chance to win.
How the numbers are made: the model prices every game from unit grades, power ratings, results, rest and weather, then compares its line with the market. More on the method.
Virginia Cavaliers vs SMU Mustangs: questions
- Who is favored in Virginia Cavaliers vs SMU Mustangs?
- The market has SMU Mustangs by 9.5. On the moneyline, SMU Mustangs -325 and Virginia Cavaliers +260.
- What is the over/under for Virginia Cavaliers vs SMU Mustangs?
- The total is 51.5, after opening at 53.5. Our model makes it 51.
- What does the model predict for Virginia Cavaliers vs SMU Mustangs?
- It leans Virginia Cavaliers +9.5 (53%) and Virginia Cavaliers moneyline +260 (30%). A lean is an opinion without a stake: the gap to the market was not big enough to make it a play.
The plays go to members
Leans are free. The plays, where the model disagrees with the market enough to stake 1% to 3% of bankroll, go to members by email the moment they publish.
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Analysis only, not betting advice. Lines move; check your book before you bet. Bet only what you can afford to lose.