Who is favored in Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints?

The market has New Orleans Saints by 3. On the moneyline, New Orleans Saints -148 and Atlanta Falcons +124.

What is the over/under for Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints?

The total is 48.5, after opening at 45.5. Our model makes it 44.5.

What does the model predict for Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints?

It leans Atlanta Falcons +3 (52%) and Under 48.5 (66%). A lean is an opinion without a stake: the gap to the market was not big enough to make it a play.

NFLWeek 4

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints prediction and odds

Monday, October 5 at 8:15 PM ET · Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA · ESPN

Market vs model

Line	Market	Model
Spread	New Orleans Saints -3	New Orleans Saints -2.5
Total	48.5	44.5
Moneyline	NO -148 / ATL +124	NO 57% to win

Line movement: the spread opened New Orleans Saints -2.5, the total opened at 45.5.

Model lean: Atlanta Falcons +3 (52%), Under 48.5 (66%)

A lean is an opinion without a stake. The model only publishes a play when its disagreement with the market clears a much higher bar.

See every game, model against market

Preview

Atlanta Falcons (1-2) visit New Orleans Saints (1-2) at Caesars Superdome, New Orleans, LA, Monday, October 5 at 8:15 PM ET, on ESPN. The market has New Orleans Saints by 3, with a total of 48.5. The line opened New Orleans Saints -2.5. Our model makes it New Orleans Saints -2.5 with a total of 44.5 and gives New Orleans Saints a 57% chance to win.

How the numbers are made: the model prices every game from unit grades, power ratings, results, rest and weather, then compares its line with the market. More on the method.

Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints: questions

Who is favored in Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints?: The market has New Orleans Saints by 3. On the moneyline, New Orleans Saints -148 and Atlanta Falcons +124.
What is the over/under for Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints?: The total is 48.5, after opening at 45.5. Our model makes it 44.5.
What does the model predict for Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans Saints?: It leans Atlanta Falcons +3 (52%) and Under 48.5 (66%). A lean is an opinion without a stake: the gap to the market was not big enough to make it a play.

The plays go to members

Leans are free. The plays, where the model disagrees with the market enough to stake 1% to 3% of bankroll, go to members by email the moment they publish.

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Analysis only, not betting advice. Lines move; check your book before you bet. Bet only what you can afford to lose.