Who is favored in Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers?

The market has Green Bay Packers by 3.5. On the moneyline, Tampa Bay Buccaneers +160 and Green Bay Packers -192.

What is the over/under for Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers?

The total is 39.5, after opening at 47.5. Our model makes it 43.5.

What does the model predict for Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers?

It leans Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 (53%) and Over 39.5 (65%). A lean is an opinion without a stake: the gap to the market was not big enough to make it a play.

NFLWeek 4

Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers prediction and odds

Sunday, October 4 at 1:00 PM ET · Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL · FOX

Market vs model

Line	Market	Model
Spread	Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5	Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5
Total	39.5	43.5
Moneyline	TB +160 / GB -192	TB 43% to win

Line movement: the spread opened Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1.5, the total opened at 47.5.

Model lean: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 (53%), Over 39.5 (65%)

A lean is an opinion without a stake. The model only publishes a play when its disagreement with the market clears a much higher bar.

See every game, model against market

Preview

Green Bay Packers (1-2) visit Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-3) at Raymond James Stadium, Tampa, FL, Sunday, October 4 at 1:00 PM ET, on FOX. The market has Green Bay Packers by 3.5, with a total of 39.5. The line opened Tampa Bay Buccaneers +1.5. Our model makes it Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5 with a total of 43.5 and gives Tampa Bay Buccaneers a 43% chance to win.

How the numbers are made: the model prices every game from unit grades, power ratings, results, rest and weather, then compares its line with the market. More on the method.

Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers: questions

Who is favored in Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers?: The market has Green Bay Packers by 3.5. On the moneyline, Tampa Bay Buccaneers +160 and Green Bay Packers -192.
What is the over/under for Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers?: The total is 39.5, after opening at 47.5. Our model makes it 43.5.
What does the model predict for Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay Buccaneers?: It leans Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5 (53%) and Over 39.5 (65%). A lean is an opinion without a stake: the gap to the market was not big enough to make it a play.

The plays go to members

Leans are free. The plays, where the model disagrees with the market enough to stake 1% to 3% of bankroll, go to members by email the moment they publish.

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Analysis only, not betting advice. Lines move; check your book before you bet. Bet only what you can afford to lose.