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NFLWeek 5

Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers prediction and odds

Sunday, October 11 at 1:00 PM ET · Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA · CBS

Market vs model

LineMarketModel
SpreadPittsburgh Steelers -2.5Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5
Total44.545.5
MoneylinePIT -142 / IND +120PIT 57% to win

Line movement: the total opened at 47.5.

Model lean: Over 44.5 (54%)

A lean is an opinion without a stake. The model only publishes a play when its disagreement with the market clears a much higher bar.

See every game, model against market

Preview

Indianapolis Colts (2-2) visit Pittsburgh Steelers (2-2) at Acrisure Stadium, Pittsburgh, PA, Sunday, October 11 at 1:00 PM ET, on CBS. The market has Pittsburgh Steelers by 2.5, with a total of 44.5. Our model makes it Pittsburgh Steelers -2.5 with a total of 45.5 and gives Pittsburgh Steelers a 57% chance to win.

How the numbers are made: the model prices every game from unit grades, power ratings, results, rest and weather, then compares its line with the market. More on the method.

Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers: questions

Who is favored in Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers?
The market has Pittsburgh Steelers by 2.5. On the moneyline, Pittsburgh Steelers -142 and Indianapolis Colts +120.
What is the over/under for Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers?
The total is 44.5, after opening at 47.5. Our model makes it 45.5.
What does the model predict for Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh Steelers?
It leans Over 44.5 (54%). A lean is an opinion without a stake: the gap to the market was not big enough to make it a play.

The plays go to members

Leans are free. The plays, where the model disagrees with the market enough to stake 1% to 3% of bankroll, go to members by email the moment they publish.

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Analysis only, not betting advice. Lines move; check your book before you bet. Bet only what you can afford to lose.