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NFLWeek 5

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys prediction and odds

Thursday, October 8 at 8:15 PM ET · AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX · Prime Video

Market vs model

LineMarketModel
SpreadDallas Cowboys -8.5Dallas Cowboys -7
Total47.549.5
MoneylineDAL -455 / TB +350DAL 71% to win

Line movement: the spread opened Dallas Cowboys -3.5, the total opened at 52.5.

Model lean: Tampa Bay Buccaneers +8.5 (54%), Over 47.5 (57%), Tampa Bay Buccaneers moneyline +350 (29%)

A lean is an opinion without a stake. The model only publishes a play when its disagreement with the market clears a much higher bar.

See every game, model against market

Preview

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (0-4) visit Dallas Cowboys (2-2) at AT&T Stadium, Arlington, TX, Thursday, October 8 at 8:15 PM ET, on Prime Video. The market has Dallas Cowboys by 8.5, with a total of 47.5. The line opened Dallas Cowboys -3.5. Our model makes it Dallas Cowboys -7 with a total of 49.5 and gives Dallas Cowboys a 71% chance to win.

How the numbers are made: the model prices every game from unit grades, power ratings, results, rest and weather, then compares its line with the market. More on the method.

Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys: questions

Who is favored in Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys?
The market has Dallas Cowboys by 8.5. On the moneyline, Dallas Cowboys -455 and Tampa Bay Buccaneers +350.
What is the over/under for Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys?
The total is 47.5, after opening at 52.5. Our model makes it 49.5.
What does the model predict for Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas Cowboys?
It leans Tampa Bay Buccaneers +8.5 (54%) and Over 47.5 (57%) and Tampa Bay Buccaneers moneyline +350 (29%). A lean is an opinion without a stake: the gap to the market was not big enough to make it a play.

The plays go to members

Leans are free. The plays, where the model disagrees with the market enough to stake 1% to 3% of bankroll, go to members by email the moment they publish.

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Analysis only, not betting advice. Lines move; check your book before you bet. Bet only what you can afford to lose.