Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots prediction and odds
Sunday, October 11 at 1:00 PM ET · Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA · CBS
Market vs model
| Line | Market | Model |
|---|---|---|
| Spread | New England Patriots -3.5 | New England Patriots -6.5 |
| Total | 45.5 | 44 |
| Moneyline | NE -192 / LV +160 | NE 69% to win |
Line movement: the spread opened New England Patriots -8.5, the total opened at 44.5.
Model lean: New England Patriots -3.5 (59%), Under 45.5 (55%)
A lean is an opinion without a stake. The model only publishes a play when its disagreement with the market clears a much higher bar.
Preview
Las Vegas Raiders (3-1) visit New England Patriots (2-2) at Gillette Stadium, Foxborough, MA, Sunday, October 11 at 1:00 PM ET, on CBS. The market has New England Patriots by 3.5, with a total of 45.5. The line opened New England Patriots -8.5. Our model makes it New England Patriots -6.5 with a total of 44 and gives New England Patriots a 69% chance to win.
How the numbers are made: the model prices every game from unit grades, power ratings, results, rest and weather, then compares its line with the market. More on the method.
Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots: questions
- Who is favored in Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots?
- The market has New England Patriots by 3.5. On the moneyline, New England Patriots -192 and Las Vegas Raiders +160.
- What is the over/under for Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots?
- The total is 45.5, after opening at 44.5. Our model makes it 44.
- What does the model predict for Las Vegas Raiders vs New England Patriots?
- It leans New England Patriots -3.5 (59%) and Under 45.5 (55%). A lean is an opinion without a stake: the gap to the market was not big enough to make it a play.
The plays go to members
Leans are free. The plays, where the model disagrees with the market enough to stake 1% to 3% of bankroll, go to members by email the moment they publish.
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Analysis only, not betting advice. Lines move; check your book before you bet. Bet only what you can afford to lose.