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NFLWeek 5

New York Giants vs Washington Commanders prediction and odds

Sunday, October 11 at 1:00 PM ET · Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD · Fox

Market vs model

LineMarketModel
Total43.544.5

Line movement: the spread opened Washington Commanders -2.5, the total opened at 48.5.

Model lean: Over 43.5 (54%)

A lean is an opinion without a stake. The model only publishes a play when its disagreement with the market clears a much higher bar.

See every game, model against market

Preview

New York Giants (3-1) visit Washington Commanders (1-3) at Northwest Stadium, Landover, MD, Sunday, October 11 at 1:00 PM ET, on Fox. The market has Washington Commanders by 3.5, with a total of 43.5. The line opened Washington Commanders -2.5. Our model has a total of 44.5.

How the numbers are made: the model prices every game from unit grades, power ratings, results, rest and weather, then compares its line with the market. More on the method.

New York Giants vs Washington Commanders: questions

Who is favored in New York Giants vs Washington Commanders?
The market has Washington Commanders by 3.5. On the moneyline, Washington Commanders -180 and New York Giants +150.
What is the over/under for New York Giants vs Washington Commanders?
The total is 43.5, after opening at 48.5. Our model makes it 44.5.
What does the model predict for New York Giants vs Washington Commanders?
It leans Over 43.5 (54%). A lean is an opinion without a stake: the gap to the market was not big enough to make it a play.

The plays go to members

Leans are free. The plays, where the model disagrees with the market enough to stake 1% to 3% of bankroll, go to members by email the moment they publish.

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Analysis only, not betting advice. Lines move; check your book before you bet. Bet only what you can afford to lose.