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NCAAFWeek 6

Houston Cougars vs Kansas State Wildcats prediction and odds

Saturday, October 10 at 3:30 PM ET · Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, KS · Fox

Market vs model

LineMarketModel
SpreadKansas State Wildcats -2.5Kansas State Wildcats -0.5
Total56.554.5
MoneylineKSU -142 / HOU +120KSU 51% to win

Line movement: the total opened at 54.5.

Model lean: Houston Cougars +2.5 (55%), Under 56.5 (56%)

A lean is an opinion without a stake. The model only publishes a play when its disagreement with the market clears a much higher bar.

See every game, model against market

Preview

No. 22 Houston Cougars (4-1) visit Kansas State Wildcats (3-1) at Bill Snyder Family Stadium, Manhattan, KS, Saturday, October 10 at 3:30 PM ET, on Fox. The market has Kansas State Wildcats by 2.5, with a total of 56.5. Our model makes it Kansas State Wildcats -0.5 with a total of 54.5 and gives Kansas State Wildcats a 51% chance to win.

How the numbers are made: the model prices every game from unit grades, power ratings, results, rest and weather, then compares its line with the market. More on the method.

Houston Cougars vs Kansas State Wildcats: questions

Who is favored in Houston Cougars vs Kansas State Wildcats?
The market has Kansas State Wildcats by 2.5. On the moneyline, Kansas State Wildcats -142 and Houston Cougars +120.
What is the over/under for Houston Cougars vs Kansas State Wildcats?
The total is 56.5, after opening at 54.5. Our model makes it 54.5.
What does the model predict for Houston Cougars vs Kansas State Wildcats?
It leans Houston Cougars +2.5 (55%) and Under 56.5 (56%). A lean is an opinion without a stake: the gap to the market was not big enough to make it a play.

The plays go to members

Leans are free. The plays, where the model disagrees with the market enough to stake 1% to 3% of bankroll, go to members by email the moment they publish.

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Analysis only, not betting advice. Lines move; check your book before you bet. Bet only what you can afford to lose.