Who is favored in Illinois Fighting Illini vs Michigan State Spartans?

The market has Illinois Fighting Illini by 2.5. On the moneyline, Michigan State Spartans +114 and Illinois Fighting Illini -135.

What is the over/under for Illinois Fighting Illini vs Michigan State Spartans?

The total is 49.5, after opening at 50.5. Our model makes it 46.5.

What does the model predict for Illinois Fighting Illini vs Michigan State Spartans?

It leans Michigan State Spartans +2.5 (52%) and Under 49.5 (59%). A lean is an opinion without a stake: the gap to the market was not big enough to make it a play.

NCAAFWeek 6

Illinois Fighting Illini vs Michigan State Spartans prediction and odds

Saturday, October 10 at 3:30 PM ET · Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI · FS1

Market vs model

Line	Market	Model
Spread	Michigan State Spartans +2.5	Michigan State Spartans +2
Total	49.5	46.5
Moneyline	MSU +114 / ILL -135	MSU 45% to win

Line movement: the spread opened Michigan State Spartans +3, the total opened at 50.5.

Model lean: Michigan State Spartans +2.5 (52%), Under 49.5 (59%)

A lean is an opinion without a stake. The model only publishes a play when its disagreement with the market clears a much higher bar.

See every game, model against market

Preview

Illinois Fighting Illini (2-3) visit Michigan State Spartans (2-3) at Spartan Stadium, East Lansing, MI, Saturday, October 10 at 3:30 PM ET, on FS1. The market has Illinois Fighting Illini by 2.5, with a total of 49.5. The line opened Michigan State Spartans +3. Our model makes it Michigan State Spartans +2 with a total of 46.5 and gives Michigan State Spartans a 45% chance to win.

How the numbers are made: the model prices every game from unit grades, power ratings, results, rest and weather, then compares its line with the market. More on the method.

Illinois Fighting Illini vs Michigan State Spartans: questions

Who is favored in Illinois Fighting Illini vs Michigan State Spartans?: The market has Illinois Fighting Illini by 2.5. On the moneyline, Michigan State Spartans +114 and Illinois Fighting Illini -135.
What is the over/under for Illinois Fighting Illini vs Michigan State Spartans?: The total is 49.5, after opening at 50.5. Our model makes it 46.5.
What does the model predict for Illinois Fighting Illini vs Michigan State Spartans?: It leans Michigan State Spartans +2.5 (52%) and Under 49.5 (59%). A lean is an opinion without a stake: the gap to the market was not big enough to make it a play.

The plays go to members

Leans are free. The plays, where the model disagrees with the market enough to stake 1% to 3% of bankroll, go to members by email the moment they publish.

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Analysis only, not betting advice. Lines move; check your book before you bet. Bet only what you can afford to lose.