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NCAAFWeek 6

Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Purdue Boilermakers prediction and odds

Saturday, October 10 at 8:00 PM ET · Ross-Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, IN · BTN

Market vs model

LineMarketModel
SpreadPurdue Boilermakers +2.5Purdue Boilermakers +3.5
Total50.552.5
MoneylinePUR +114 / MINN -135PUR 42% to win

Line movement: the spread opened Purdue Boilermakers +4.5, the total opened at 49.5.

Model lean: Minnesota Golden Gophers -2.5 (52%), Over 50.5 (55%)

A lean is an opinion without a stake. The model only publishes a play when its disagreement with the market clears a much higher bar.

See every game, model against market

Preview

Minnesota Golden Gophers (4-1) visit Purdue Boilermakers (2-3) at Ross-Ade Stadium, West Lafayette, IN, Saturday, October 10 at 8:00 PM ET, on BTN. The market has Minnesota Golden Gophers by 2.5, with a total of 50.5. The line opened Purdue Boilermakers +4.5. Our model makes it Purdue Boilermakers +3.5 with a total of 52.5 and gives Purdue Boilermakers a 42% chance to win.

How the numbers are made: the model prices every game from unit grades, power ratings, results, rest and weather, then compares its line with the market. More on the method.

Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Purdue Boilermakers: questions

Who is favored in Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Purdue Boilermakers?
The market has Minnesota Golden Gophers by 2.5. On the moneyline, Purdue Boilermakers +114 and Minnesota Golden Gophers -135.
What is the over/under for Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Purdue Boilermakers?
The total is 50.5, after opening at 49.5. Our model makes it 52.5.
What does the model predict for Minnesota Golden Gophers vs Purdue Boilermakers?
It leans Minnesota Golden Gophers -2.5 (52%) and Over 50.5 (55%). A lean is an opinion without a stake: the gap to the market was not big enough to make it a play.

The plays go to members

Leans are free. The plays, where the model disagrees with the market enough to stake 1% to 3% of bankroll, go to members by email the moment they publish.

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Analysis only, not betting advice. Lines move; check your book before you bet. Bet only what you can afford to lose.