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NCAAFWeek 6

UAB Blazers vs Memphis Tigers prediction and odds

Saturday, October 10 at 7:00 PM ET · Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, Memphis, TN · ESPN2

Market vs model

LineMarketModel
SpreadMemphis Tigers -14Memphis Tigers -13
Total57.555
MoneylineMEM -600 / UAB +440MEM 79% to win

Line movement: the total opened at 59.5.

Model lean: UAB Blazers +14 (52%), Under 57.5 (58%), UAB Blazers moneyline +440 (21%)

A lean is an opinion without a stake. The model only publishes a play when its disagreement with the market clears a much higher bar.

See every game, model against market

Preview

UAB Blazers (3-2) visit Memphis Tigers (4-1) at Simmons Bank Liberty Stadium, Memphis, TN, Saturday, October 10 at 7:00 PM ET, on ESPN2. The market has Memphis Tigers by 14, with a total of 57.5. Our model makes it Memphis Tigers -13 with a total of 55 and gives Memphis Tigers a 79% chance to win.

How the numbers are made: the model prices every game from unit grades, power ratings, results, rest and weather, then compares its line with the market. More on the method.

UAB Blazers vs Memphis Tigers: questions

Who is favored in UAB Blazers vs Memphis Tigers?
The market has Memphis Tigers by 14. On the moneyline, Memphis Tigers -600 and UAB Blazers +440.
What is the over/under for UAB Blazers vs Memphis Tigers?
The total is 57.5, after opening at 59.5. Our model makes it 55.
What does the model predict for UAB Blazers vs Memphis Tigers?
It leans UAB Blazers +14 (52%) and Under 57.5 (58%) and UAB Blazers moneyline +440 (21%). A lean is an opinion without a stake: the gap to the market was not big enough to make it a play.

The plays go to members

Leans are free. The plays, where the model disagrees with the market enough to stake 1% to 3% of bankroll, go to members by email the moment they publish.

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Analysis only, not betting advice. Lines move; check your book before you bet. Bet only what you can afford to lose.