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NCAAFWeek 6

UCF Knights vs Oklahoma State Cowboys prediction and odds

Saturday, October 10 at 12:00 PM ET · Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, OK · ESPN2

Market vs model

LineMarketModel
Total54.552

Line movement: the spread opened Oklahoma State Cowboys -10, the total opened at 52.5.

Model lean: Under 54.5 (58%)

A lean is an opinion without a stake. The model only publishes a play when its disagreement with the market clears a much higher bar.

See every game, model against market

Preview

UCF Knights (3-2) visit No. 18 Oklahoma State Cowboys (3-1) at Boone Pickens Stadium, Stillwater, OK, Saturday, October 10 at 12:00 PM ET, on ESPN2. The market has Oklahoma State Cowboys by 9.5, with a total of 54.5. The line opened Oklahoma State Cowboys -10. Our model has a total of 52.

How the numbers are made: the model prices every game from unit grades, power ratings, results, rest and weather, then compares its line with the market. More on the method.

UCF Knights vs Oklahoma State Cowboys: questions

Who is favored in UCF Knights vs Oklahoma State Cowboys?
The market has Oklahoma State Cowboys by 9.5. On the moneyline, Oklahoma State Cowboys -360 and UCF Knights +285.
What is the over/under for UCF Knights vs Oklahoma State Cowboys?
The total is 54.5, after opening at 52.5. Our model makes it 52.
What does the model predict for UCF Knights vs Oklahoma State Cowboys?
It leans Under 54.5 (58%). A lean is an opinion without a stake: the gap to the market was not big enough to make it a play.

The plays go to members

Leans are free. The plays, where the model disagrees with the market enough to stake 1% to 3% of bankroll, go to members by email the moment they publish.

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Analysis only, not betting advice. Lines move; check your book before you bet. Bet only what you can afford to lose.