NFL week 4 picks and predictions
Our model priced 16 NFL games for week 4 (October 1 to October 5) and set its own line on each one next to the market. Most of the time the two agree, and a lean is only a lean. The games where the model disagrees enough to stake money on are plays: 6 this week, for members, and every one is graded in public.
Biggest model leans this week
- Indianapolis Colts at Washington Commanders: lean Indianapolis Colts -3.5
Market Washington Commanders +3.5, model Washington Commanders +5. About 54% for this side by the model: a lean, not a play.
- Dallas Cowboys at Houston Texans: lean Houston Texans -2.5
Market Houston Texans -2.5, model Houston Texans -4. About 54% for this side by the model: a lean, not a play.
- Arizona Cardinals at New York Giants: lean New York Giants +1.5
Market New York Giants +1.5, model New York Giants PK. About 54% for this side by the model: a lean, not a play.
- Tennessee Titans at Baltimore Ravens: lean Baltimore Ravens -11.5
Market Baltimore Ravens -11.5, model Baltimore Ravens -13. About 54% for this side by the model: a lean, not a play.
- Green Bay Packers at Tampa Bay Buccaneers: lean Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5
Market Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5, model Tampa Bay Buccaneers +2.5. About 53% for this side by the model: a lean, not a play.
Every week 4 game
Thursday, October 1
- Pittsburgh Steelers vs Cleveland BrownsMembers play
NFL · 8:15 PM ET
Sunday, October 4
- Indianapolis Colts vs Washington CommandersLean Indianapolis Colts -3.5
NFL · 9:30 AM ET
- Dallas Cowboys vs Houston TexansLean Houston Texans -2.5
NFL · 1:00 PM ET
- New York Jets vs Chicago BearsMembers play
NFL · 1:00 PM ET
- Jacksonville Jaguars vs Cincinnati BengalsNo lean
NFL · 1:00 PM ET
- Arizona Cardinals vs New York GiantsLean New York Giants +1.5
NFL · 1:00 PM ET
- Los Angeles Rams vs Philadelphia EaglesNo lean
NFL · 1:00 PM ET
- Green Bay Packers vs Tampa Bay BuccaneersLean Tampa Bay Buccaneers +3.5
NFL · 1:00 PM ET
- Tennessee Titans vs Baltimore RavensLean Baltimore Ravens -11.5
NFL · 1:00 PM ET
- New England Patriots vs Buffalo BillsNo lean
NFL · 1:00 PM ET
- Miami Dolphins vs Minnesota VikingsLean Minnesota Vikings -10.5
NFL · 4:05 PM ET
- Denver Broncos vs San Francisco 49ersMembers play
NFL · 4:25 PM ET
- Los Angeles Chargers vs Seattle SeahawksMembers play
NFL · 4:25 PM ET
- Kansas City Chiefs vs Las Vegas RaidersMembers play
NFL · 4:25 PM ET
- Detroit Lions vs Carolina PanthersMembers play
NFL · 8:20 PM ET
Monday, October 5
- Atlanta Falcons vs New Orleans SaintsLean Atlanta Falcons +3
NFL · 8:15 PM ET
Get the week 4 plays
The plays go to members by email the moment they publish, with the stake and the reasoning. Founding members pay 30% less for as long as they stay subscribed: 25 of 25 seats left.
The model's leans every Wednesday, free
Last week's results, the season trends and the leans.