NFL week 5 picks and predictions
Our model priced 15 NFL games for week 5 (October 8 to October 12) and set its own line on each one next to the market. Most of the time the two agree, and a lean is only a lean. The games where the model disagrees enough to stake money on are plays: 6 this week, for members, and every one is graded in public.
Biggest model leans this week
- Las Vegas Raiders at New England Patriots: lean New England Patriots -3.5
Market New England Patriots -3.5, model New England Patriots -6.5. About 59% for this side by the model: a lean, not a play.
- Houston Texans at Tennessee Titans: lean Under 37.5
Market total 37.5, model total 36.5. About 55% for this side by the model: a lean, not a play.
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers at Dallas Cowboys: lean Tampa Bay Buccaneers +8.5
Market Dallas Cowboys -8.5, model Dallas Cowboys -7. About 54% for this side by the model: a lean, not a play.
- Indianapolis Colts at Pittsburgh Steelers: lean Over 44.5
Market total 44.5, model total 45.5. About 54% for this side by the model: a lean, not a play.
- New York Giants at Washington Commanders: lean Over 43.5
Market total 43.5, model total 44.5. About 54% for this side by the model: a lean, not a play.
Every week 5 game
Thursday, October 8
- Tampa Bay Buccaneers vs Dallas CowboysLean Tampa Bay Buccaneers +8.5
NFL · 8:15 PM ET
Sunday, October 11
- Philadelphia Eagles vs Jacksonville JaguarsMembers play
NFL · 9:30 AM ET
- Cincinnati Bengals vs Miami DolphinsLean Miami Dolphins +7
NFL · 1:00 PM ET
- Minnesota Vikings vs New Orleans SaintsMembers play
NFL · 1:00 PM ET
- Chicago Bears vs Green Bay PackersMembers play
NFL · 1:00 PM ET
- Las Vegas Raiders vs New England PatriotsLean New England Patriots -3.5
NFL · 1:00 PM ET
- Cleveland Browns vs New York JetsMembers play
NFL · 1:00 PM ET
- Indianapolis Colts vs Pittsburgh SteelersLean Over 44.5
NFL · 1:00 PM ET
- New York Giants vs Washington CommandersLean Over 43.5
NFL · 1:00 PM ET
- Houston Texans vs Tennessee TitansLean Under 37.5
NFL · 1:00 PM ET
- Denver Broncos vs Los Angeles ChargersLean Los Angeles Chargers +3.5
NFL · 4:05 PM ET
- Detroit Lions vs Arizona CardinalsLean Detroit Lions -4.5
NFL · 4:25 PM ET
- San Francisco 49ers vs Seattle SeahawksLean Seattle Seahawks -2.5
NFL · 4:25 PM ET
- Baltimore Ravens vs Atlanta FalconsMembers play
NFL · 8:20 PM ET
Monday, October 12
- Buffalo Bills vs Los Angeles RamsMembers play
NFL · 8:15 PM ET
Get the week 5 plays
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The model's leans every Wednesday, free
Last week's results, the season trends and the leans.